The Round-Up, December 2022
Headwinds
To our valued clients and friends,
Today, we find the world still facing significant headwinds with CRE pricing reset 25% to 30%, sluggish GDP, increasing interest rates and lacklustre employment. Some pundits are beginning to utter the ‘s-word’, stagflation. As defined, it seems clear that most major economies are in or are headed towards stagflation which will most likely overshadow global growth for the next 12-24 months until the central banks accomplish their goals of squashing inflation to acceptable levels.
This final interview for 2022 was conducted with Ward Fitzgerald, Global CEO of EQT Exeter. We first met Ward as a result of our advising EQT in their search to penetrate the US market. We helped identify a number of platforms to consider acquiring which satisfied their investment and cultural touch-points. We purposefully designed this interview with Ward given his views from the perch on which he sits, atop of one of the world’s leading organizations which offers the unique confluence of PE and CRE activity. We hope you find Ward’s perspective useful.
Also, in this edition of The Round Up, we share the results of our annual Global Real Assets survey, covering topics such as hiring and compensation.
We wish you all a fantastic holiday season.
Best wishes,
Mark Antoncic
Expert Opinion
Interview with Ward Fitzgerald
Ward Fitzgerald is the Chief Executive Officer and Senior Managing Principal of EQT Exeter, an international real estate equity fund investment group and real estate development and operating company with offices in 40 locations in the US, Europe, Asia, Brazil, and Mexico. During his leadership of the firm, founded in 2006, the organization has raised over 20 investment vehicles totaling over $15 billion in equity capital representing pension, sovereign wealth, endowment, insurance, and foundation partners from around the globe. These vehicles have made over 1,000 real estate transactions in the warehouse/logistics and office/life science sectors totaling in excess of $25 billion.
Prior to Exeter, Ward was part of the senior management team at Rouse/Liberty Property Trust, a $7 billion publicly traded office and industrial REIT, which he helped take public in 1994. In addition to his business endeavors, Ward has served on the Board of Trustees for LaSalle College High School and holds Board and/or Advisory positions with Jefferson Hospital, The Ehlers Danlos Society, The Papal Foundation, and the National Centre for Padre Pio. He currently sits on the Business Advisory Council at the University of Notre Dame. Ward holds an MBA from Harvard Business School (’89) and a BA in Business Administration from the University of Notre Dame (’85).
Please, read our in-depth interview with Ward;
Where he shared his insights, on how he built one of the world’s leading real estate organisations.
As Raw As It Gets
We asked our survey participants about “the biggest challenges for 2023”
“The game has changed and so have we. We are excited about what is to come – a move away from commoditization and a flight back to quality”
“Capital raising will be a challenge as investors are mostly capital constrained. Valuations will be impacted by rising interest rates and cap rates”
“The risk that higher interest rates and more limited debt availability will trigger a sharper than expected correction in commercial real estate values”
“There is always a delay during times of change until owners accept the change in valuations, sometimes it’s 3 months, other times it’s 12 months. If it’s 12 months, 2023 will be a year with a lack of product to buy”
“Navigate, motivate and keep engaged as 2023 is shaping up to be a tough year. The great bubble deflation is well underway, and this unwinding could go longer than expected; or maybe not…”
“Investors remaining risk off and suffering liquidity issues. The denominator effect continues to constrain alternatives. The so-called wall of cash may have evaporated due to high interest rates sucking capital out of the funds”
“Greater efficiency and better execution will be required with tighter spreads and higher debt costs”
“Commitment to meeting sustainability targets linked to capital funding for development and construction projects”
“Access to capital (debt & equity) while investors figure out new investment strategies and wait for ‘the bottom of the market’”
“Market uncertainty due to inflation, interest rates, political climate and recessionary fears will lead to a slowdown affecting new opportunities”
“Underwriting new real estate transactions in the context of significant macro uncertainty and persistent high inflation and interest rates”
“Liquidity and compression of net income: squeeze on op costs, financing costs increasing, ability to grow revenue may not compensate”
“China’s policy risks, geopolitical risks especially a major war across the Taiwan Strait”
“Rents are starting to come down. We are still fighting wage inflation. Utility costs are very high.”
“Achieve a more economically sustainable growth, versus growing by burning cash”
“Shifting from growth mode to value mode”
“Hiring and retention of talent”
“Space usage as it relates to occupancy trends. Rising interest rates.”
“Significant bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers for investment properties. Could lead to sustained, long-term drop-in transaction volumes as many sellers have fixed long term financing at low interest rates and therefore have little to no interest in making the significant price reductions needed to make deals “work” for leveraged buyers.”
“Investors continue to climb the risk ladder (i.e., acquiring development portfolios at high valuations). While there are certainly tailwinds, the sustainability of this trend is unknown leaving project developers with the conundrum of whether or not to develop projects that look attractive at today’s exit valuations, but are marginal at best if buyers show more valuation discipline”
“We support UK SME house builders, so in 2023 sales of finished product to the private homeowner is going to be the biggest issue. Sales proceeds repay our investments Sales will be determined by the actual peak in resi mortgage interest rates and affordability and cost of living/inflation crisis”
“Getting clients to understand the value and invest in our services”
“Loan maturities and extension tests”
“Maintaining investment performance and raising more capital”
“Staff retention as inflation runs faster than we can increase salaries. This will be compounded by lower carry expectations”
“Leaders who can execute;
we have enough ideas / strategies – execution is all”
“ESG and platforms and managing any fall-out from leverage and-or prolonged or sharper than expected recession”
Global Real Assets Survey 2022
Thank you to everyone who responded to our latest global survey – Real Assets Round Up. We are delighted to share with you the results including a snapshot of the answers from the respondents which offer a global outlook representing different platform types and size of company.
Talking Points
Ghada Sousou, CEO and Founder of Sousou Partners, was delighted to take part in a panel event hosted by The Women Network. Alongside other senior female leaders in the European real estate sector, Ghada shared her views on themes such as leadership, mentorship, hiring and retaining female talent, how to navigate certain career moves and the gender pay gap. A huge thank you to The Women Network and BentallGreenOak for hosting and to the other panelists for sharing their insights.
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Ghada also recently sat down with Hunt Scanlon Media to discuss the surging M&A market and what to expect looking forward. Please read this interview, from the link button, as below:
Will Parker and Dom Harding were delighted to attend the ULI UK’s event on ‘Lessons from Previous Property Market Downturns’ – an interesting and insightful panel discussion hosting senior industry leaders, who shared their experiences of previous market cycles. It was fascinating to hear their views and advice, and great to catch up with old industry friends and meet new ones!
Key Moves
A highlight of key people moves within global real assets over the last two months
EMEA
- ICG Real Estate hired Madeleine Cosgrave as Senior Advisor
- Richard Powers joined Brookfield Asset Management as Managing Partner and Chief Operating Officer of European Real Estate
- H.I.G. Capital hired Alessio Lucentini as Real Estate Head of Asset Management in Europe
- M&G appointed Laura Jockers as its Global Head of ESG – Real Estate
- CBRE Capital Advisors hired Patrick Bone as a Senior Director in the equity placement team
- Enrico Sanna was appointed Chief Executive Officer of TOG, following the merger with Fora
- Holger Lüth stepped down as Chief Financial Officer and Deputy Chief Executive Officer of Domicil Real Estate
- DeA hired Emmanuel Steinbeis as Director of Portfolio Management and Jens Zimmermann as Director of Asset Management
- Jens Thiemann joined Jamestown as Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Portfolio Management
- Precis Capital Partners hired Ben Lynch as Senior Director, Credit and Benoit Fesquet as Associate Director
- Debbie Lee is succeeding Roger Blundell as Chief Financial Officer of Grosvenor’s UK property business
- Christopher Lankin and Julian Neave joined Cadillac Fairview’s London team as Managing Director and Director respectively
- Fiera Real Estate UK hired Richard Howe and David Renshaw from Cheyne Capital to set up and run a new pan-European real estate debt platform
- Fabrix hired Nicholas Schiloff from Blackstone as Chief Investment Officer
- The Crown Estate appointed Kristy Lansdown as Head of Development, James Atherton as Development Director and Andy Goodenough as Commercial and Cost Director
- Jonathan Haas and Oliver Pepper joined RBC Real Estate Capital Partners, focused on European origination
- IPSX hired Rupert Snuggs as Head of Origination
- Trammell Crow hired Christian Tretiak as Director of Business Development, Claudia Matz as Senior Planning Manager, and Maximilian Moser as Senior Development Manager
- Delin Property hired Raffi Killian as Head of Investments
APAC
- Ares hired Danielle Lau to focus on Real Estate Secondaries in Asia
- KIC hired Jongho Kim as Head of Real Estate
- Colliers hired Chris Pilgrim as Managing Director for Global Capital Markets in APAC
- Hines announced the opening of its first office in Vietnam, appointing Director Anh Hao Le to lead the company’s operations in the country
- Aware Real Estate hired Tracey Whitby as Head of Finance and Operations
Americas
- Matthews Real Estate Investment Services appointed David Harrington as President
- Hodes Weill hired John Chase as Managing Director and Michael Lisa as Principal
- CBRE hired Nat Heald as Executive Vice President
- Center Creek Capital hired Megan McNulty as Director of Portfolio Management
- NEPC hired Shelley Santulli as Principal and Senior Investment Director, Real Assets
- Pretium hired Andrea Allan as Managing Director
Transactions
A look at some of the largest real estate deals over the last two months
Focus: UK Life Sciences
Focus: Hospitality
Market Insights
Market Trends
- The real estate sector accounts for 40% of greenhouse gas emissions globally. This is driving a shift towards greater accountability and transparency on sustainability from investors, developers, owners and operators
- Real Estate Managers have become more bearish about their ability to promote ESG as a means of attracting capital because of complex implementation processes, regulation and global economic headwinds
- Tishman Speyer had six US and European portfolios earn 5-star ratings from the Global Real Estate Sustainability Benchmark
- Opportunistic buyers in the US are lying in wait as owners of older office buildings across the country face hard times ahead as financing deals get more difficult
- The Swedish property market is facing $10bn of debt repayments next year, with refinancing demands of c. $41bn expected by the end of 2026, as the sector faces a funding squeeze
- Canada, New Zealand and Sweden have more than a 50% chance of experiencing housing market crashes, according to Oxford Economics. The US and the UK were also flagged as having elevated chances of a crash, at 35% and 25%, respectively
- Real Estate Investment in Spain reached €13.1bn in the first 9 months of 2022, up 57% from the same period last year
- British house prices failed to rise in monthly terms for the firm time since July 2021
- European rental prices grew by 16.5% over the past year
- CBRE Investment Management deferred redemption payments on its UK property fund due to market conditions, joining several other funds taking similar steps
- Deliveroo opened its first bricks and mortar store on New Oxford Street
Life Sciences
- Trinity Capital and Starwood started construction on a speculative $1bn life science campus in North Carolina
- UBS is set to continue to raise funds for investment in the life sciences sector, targeting its second fund close at around £1bn. This follows the first close of UBS’s dedicated fund at £400m
- Longfellow teamed up with NBIM and PSP Investments to invest £1.5bn in the UK life sciences real estate sector
Fund Raises
- Ares raised $1.8bn for its tenth value-add US real estate fund
- TPG closed its latest opportunistic real estate equity fund with $6.8bn in commitments
- Castlelake closed its second income opportunities fund with $782m
- GLP raised $743m for its seventh China Income Fund to invest in e-commerce, logistics and retail assets in China
- Highbrook Investors closed its most recent fund at $632m
Renewables
- Gaw Capital Partners formed a joint venture with renewable energy developer Maoneng Group to develop a $2bn portfolio in Australia
- LaSalle partnered with full-electric commercial vehicle manufacturer and services provider Volta Trucks Hub in the UK
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