The Round-Up, July 2022

Taking Stock

To our valued clients and friends, 

The hospitality sector is a passion for many people, and it offers the opportunity to develop new skills, build relationships and provide rewarding employment. Hospitality plays an important role in promoting economic development and prosperity in communities all over the world and the focus on eco-tourism drives a complex balance between ensuring long-term sustainability and maximising economic returns.  Building out into remote areas through the creation of new destinations requires special care, as Carlos Hernandez, Chief Executive Officer of the Pellas Development Group explains in our latest interview, in which we spoke to him about his luxury resort developments in Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

There is much uncertainty as to where the world is heading given current economic pressures, the continued conflict in Ukraine, and the resurgence of Covid in developed nations. We are experiencing a more cautious approach to investment in some sectors and in this month’s edition of “As Raw As It Gets”, we share what the global Real Assets’ market is telling us they are currently experiencing and what they expect for the remainder of 2022.

Covid severely impacted the hospitality industry, and it is good to see it bouncing back despite the challenges still lingering as a result of the pandemic. We conducted a survey across our global hospitality network to get their views.

As expected they represent a range of different perspectives from optimism to caution with different approaches to tackle the challenges ahead. You can find the results in our special analysis section of this newsletter.

Being already mid-July, we wish you all a healthy and good summer.

Best wishes,
Maaike Kitsantas

As Raw As It Gets

We asked thought leaders about their “outlook for the remainder of 2022”

“Everything got cheaper except for real estate. We’ll be ok, but more aggressive buyers will be in trouble with lots of assets going back to the banks, that will restart the NPL market”  

“There is still more capital coming into our sector, so it will be difficult to see how the market will bottom out, it will constantly be saved by dry powder that is currently on the sidelines”

“Given what happened in 2020, firms are more prepared for an eventuality like this. They had a lot of time to prepare getting their house in order for an extreme correction that never happened”

“Financing is painful at the moment but this will be an opportunity for value add investors”

“The US will do a lot better than Europe, inflation there less is persistent, it’s already slowing down”  

“We’re excited the distress this market will undoubtedly present as opportunities”

“Inflation may have hit its peak, but pain coming, we’re just not sure how painful it will be. Central bankers seem to think [inflation] is entrenched which is concerning”

“There will be a 15-20% repricing of core assets, however things will slow as people who have bought at the peak of high prices will sit on their acquisitions”

“We are revisiting the pipeline, there is stale pricing, and we’re pulling out of deals where pricing is not reflective of today’s / tomorrow’s fundamentals”

“Construction and development has slowed right down, partly due to cost increases but also because of the lack of labour”

“Post-Covid, tenants want to move back into offices, so you can move a bit on leasing”

“We are already seeing some repricing – we sold a logistics asset for 15% lower than it would have been in January”

“A lot of assets overpriced, it could be bad when things start correcting and people need to recap/refinance. We should be well positioned to take advantage of uncertain market conditions, this is the market we operate in”

“All capex budgets are now at 20/30/40%+ on what we underwrote; we have the leeway to absorb cost overruns to a point, as we bought things off-market at a good price, but it is eating into our returns”

“Capital raising is very difficult; already investors’ allocations to real estate are too high, except from Middle Eastern investors, who don’t care about allocations and are still benefitting from high oil prices” 

“Rental housing in the US looks great. Logistics currently looks great as an investment, but when consumers stop buying, it will no longer look such a good deal”

“Open-ended funds will really suffer – people will ask for redemptions, they won’t be able to do them straight away, there will be a backlog, valuations won’t be able to keep to the same pace, they will take a few quarters to adjust, so they won’t get new investors as no one wants to catch a falling knife” 

“This is great for us on the lending side, we have more opportunities and can be pickier with the deals we take on. On the equity side they are being more cautious”

“The market will freeze in September”

“The obvious transactions are now done, by and large; no one is making deals”

“It will be a tough next two years”

Expert Opinion

Interview with Carlos Hernandez

Carlos Hernandez is a seasoned Chief Executive Officer and international real estate professional, and the creator of some of the most unique and awarded concepts in luxury hotels, golf courses, resorts and master planned communities in Latin America including the Santa Maria Golf & Country Club, a 1,000 acre mixed used neighbourhood in Panama, Guacalito de la Isla, a 1,900 acre resort in Nicaragua and its celebrated Mukul Hotel, An Auberge Resort and the 3,000 acre Costa Elena master planned community in Costa Rica.

He is a creative thinker and an expert in leading complex projects and teams in multiple countries and jurisdictions, on a mission to transform remote and offen  marginalised communities in to thriving sustainable tourism destinations. Mr Hernandez graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Civil Engineering from the Universidad Iberoamericana in Mexico City, and he earned a Master of Science in Finance at Florida International University in 2003 and completed the Advance Management Program AMP at Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. He is an active member of the Recreational Council of the Urban Land Institute.

Read our in-depth interview with Carlos, where he discussed his work in creating and developing sustainable and socially-integrated mixed-use communities in Central America.

Global Hospitality Survey 2022

Thank you to everyone who responded to the Sousou Partners survey – Taking Stock in the Hospitality Arena. We are delighted to share with you the results including a snapshot of the answers from the respondents which offer a global outlook representing different platform types and size of company.

Key Moves

A highlight of key people moves within global real assets over the last two months

Europe

  • Anne Kavanagh joined Telford Home as Chief Executive Officer
  • Credit Suisse Asset Management hired Rob Rackind as Global Head of Real Estate
  • Justin Brown, Head of EMEA Real Estate at BlackRock, is leaving the firm after 10 years
  • Colin Throssell joined NREP as Chief Financial Officer
  • Stephen Miles joined Schroders Capital’s real estate team as Head of Strategic Capital Partnerships, Europe
  • Savills IM hired Patrick Au Yeung as Senior Fund Manager, European Residential, and Claire George as Chief Technology and Operations Officer
  • Matt Rafferty joined King Street as Head of Real Estate Asset Management
  • CBRE Investment Management hired Steven Storrs as Head of Portfolio Management for indirect private real estate strategies
  • Barings appointed Daniel Kohler as Head of European Real Estate Treasury
  • Quest Investment Partners hired Nicole Römer as Managing Director of its new advisory arm
  • Andrew Creighton joined Cromwell Property Group as Head of Investment Management, Europe
  • Alex Dewey joined ICG Real Estate as Head of European Real Estate Fundraising
  • Roberto Varandas joined Europa Capital as Head of Business Development
  • Patrizia hired Jerome Delaunay as Head of Asset Management, South-West Europe
  • Andrew Screen joined BNP Paribas as Head of Residential Capital Markets
  • Andy Mercer was appointed Head of ESG for UK and EMEA at Colliers
  • Nuveen hired Farrah Brown as Head of Debt Capital Markets, EU & APAC

Americas

  • Peter Gottlieb joined Hobbs Brook Real Estate as President & Chief Executive Officer
  • Blackstone hired Albert Picallo in New York as a Managing Director and senior member of their CRE underwriting team
  • Ben May, Group Head of Macquarie Asset Management, is set to relocate from Hong Kong to New York to capitalise on untapped opportunity in the region
  • Monroe Capital hired Gila Cohen as Head of Global Institutional Partnerships

APAC

  • David Blight was appointed Chief Investment Officer of ARA Asset Management’s private funds division
  • Tishman Speyer hired Graham Mackie as Managing Director to head the firm’s new Singapore office and expand Asia operations
  • Allianz appointed Scott Kim as Head of Real Estate, APAC
  • GIC appointed Richard Massey as Managing Director and Deputy Head of Real Estate, ANZ
  • Kian-Jin Khoo joined JLL as APAC Head of Private Wealth
  • M&G Real Estate appointed Seiko Ikeda as Head of Japan
  • Xen Capital appointed Jessie Gao as Investment Director

Transactions

A look at some of the largest real estate deals over the last two months

Focus: Corporate Transactions

Focus: Hospitality

Market Insights

Market Trends

  • Institutional investor levels of activity in committing capital to private equity real estate funds declined in May due to increased caution as they digest the changes in the macroeconomic environment, such as higher inflation, rising rates, and greater volatility
  • The US and European real estate markets are experiencing a downward shift in prices as buyers fall away
  • Several large sales have been pulled in the London and New York markets over the last few months due to concerns over market volatility
  • The cost of borrowing for real estate has now climbed to the same level as some prime entry yields, putting some leveraged buyers and asset pricing under pressure
  • APAC commercial real estate deals are set for another record year as companies seek a cash buffer after the Covid crisis
  • London is in the middle of a luxury hotel boom with more than 10,000 new hotel rooms available since the pandemic started

New Ventures

  • John Barakat, Peter Foldvari, and Jamil Farooqi, formerly of M&G Real Estate, launched a new debt business, Girona Partners
  • Legal & General Capital launched a JV with developer Ancora to acquire and develop $4bn of life sciences real estate in the US over the next five years
  • CBRE Investment Management closed its inaugural Global Special Situations Fund, targeting GP-led secondaries and recapitalizations, which also represents its first opportunistic real estate vehicle, with $599m in capital commitments
  • Invesco launched its first European real estate debt fund, an open-ended vehicle, targeting €1bn
  • ICG Real Estate and Atlantic Real Estate launched a €500m logistics platform
  • Former Harrison Street European head Daniel Gorzawski launched Westwind Capital, targeting the life sciences, innovation, and living sectors

Infrastructure

  • Brookfield announced the final close of Brookfield Global Transition Fund, its first-ever fund wholly dedicated to supporting the global economy in achieving net zero, with $15bn of capital commitments
  • Blackstone’s credit unit bought a 49% equity stake in the Elba Liquefaction Company. The firm has committed c. $16bn to investments consistent with energy transition since 2019
  • Macquarie Asset Management’s third APAC infrastructure fund closed with more than $4.2bn in capital commitments
  • The firm also invested $215m in New York-based electric vehicle company Inspiration Mobility
  • KKR is bidding to acquired ContourGlobal, a power generation operator, for £1.75bn